CTRS Mumble Jumble

This isn’t so much about history as it is about the present, although it leads into this summer major project.
Once we get into the warm weather, Curling Into the Past will slow down to about one blog entry per week. But in that time we’ll be doing multi-part series on Canada’s four previous Olympic Curling Trials, as we build to the pre-trials in Prince George and the Roar of the Rings in Edmonton.
With that in mind, I was looking at the CTRS standings on the Canadian Curling Association’s website. Currently, the site still lists only 8 teams qualified for either level for the men. However, while their placings are not official, there are five teams that have mathematically clinched a spot with just the Player’s Championship to come.
At the end of last season, eight teams had spots clinched — Glenn Howard and Kevin Martin had already qualified for Edmonton. Meanwhile, six other teams had qualified for Prince George. Those teams are: Randy Ferbey, Kevin Koe, Pat Simmons, Jeff Stoughton, Kerry Burtnyk and Wayne Middaugh.
So, that leaves everyone else looking for one of those eight remaining spots.
Now, here’s where we get into some math, so bear with me.
The lone remaining event is the Players’ Championship. The most points anyone can get out of that is 40, which will go to the winner. The runner-up gets 30 points. Keep that 30 in mind because it’s important since the winner would get an automatic berth if they are not one of the eight mentioned above.
There are four automatic berths, the one I just mentioned for the Player’s Championship, plus one for winning the Brier, one for winning the Canada Cup and one for being the top team in the CTRS. Kevin Martin won both the Brier and Canada Cup, meaning those spots will be given to a team based on the final CTRS for 2008-09. Since the closest team that hasn’t qualified is 100 points back of the leader, no one who hasn’t qualified can win the CTRS, so that spot too will go to a team that hasn’t yet qualified based on this year’s standings.
So, there’s at least three spots that will be based on the CTRS standings for this year.
The fourth-highest team in the standings that does not have a berth in the trials is Jean-Michel Menard. However, he’s stuck at 99.5 points because he’s not in the Player’s, so we’ll have to use Sean Geall since he is in the player’s. At 89.150, the most points Geall can have without winning the Players’ is 119.150. That is well below the current totals of both Brad Gushue of Newfoundland (191.15) and Mike McEwen (158.95). This means those two are mathematically guaranteed spots in the trials. So that’s two more.
Now, the final four spots will be based on three criteria in this order: one spot will go to the unqualified team with the best total over the past three seasons; two spots go to the unqualified teams with the best totals over the past two seasons; and the last spot goes to the best unqualified team in this year’s standings.
First , with the three-year standings, the best unqualified team is Joel Jordison at 235.931.
The closest team playing in the Players’ is Ontario’s Dale Matchett at 91.873. Since he can’t catch Jordison and the other seven teams between them can’t increase their totals, Jordison’s Moose Jaw rink has mathematically qualified for the trials even if it bombs at the Player’s.
That’s three teams into the trials.
Now, looking at the two-year total, we find that Bob Ursel, B.C., (173.775) and Menard (157.378), who are not in the Player’s, still can’t be caught by any unqualified team in the Players’. That means both of those rinks are in.
And that brings us to the final spot, which is decided by the current year’s CTRS. That is still in flux with the Players’ championship coming up.
But there are five teams that are now mathematically in, although the CCA has not made it official: Brad Gushue, Mike McEwen, Joel Jordison, Bob Ursel and Jean-Michel Menard.
That means there are still three spots. Let’s have a look at who those could go to.
If Jordison (who has 102.1 this season) does not win a game at the Players’, he can be caught by the following teams: Geall (89.15), Chris Schille (79.05), Ted Appelman (78.15) and Dale Matchett (72.85).
If Jordison stays ahead of those four, however, he would get the third spot.
Now, any of the unqualified teams can make life easy by winning the Players’, but if it is won by a qualified team, then that would mean a fourth spot would be determined by the CTRS.
Menard, at 99.5 is currently next in line for that spot but Geall could catch him with a quarterfinal finish. Appelman and Schille could catch him with a semifinal finish and Matchett can do it with a runner-up finish.
Now, if Jordison gets one of the spots for being one of the top four unqualified teams this year, that would free up a spot from the three-year standings.
Next in line for the three-year spot is Bob Ursel and no one at the Player’s can catch him. So he would get a spot through that method.
That would free up his spot through the two-year total.
Greg McAulay would get that spot, since he sits at 137.638 in the two-year accumulated standings and the closest team to him in the Players’ is Geall at 89.150. If Geall finished second, he would still be 8.488 points short of McAulay (if Geall won, he wouldn’t have to worry about this spot).
So, Greg McAulay has a reason to root on Joel Jordison.
If none of the teams behind Menard in the single season standings catch up to him through the Player’s, then that would open up another slot through the two-year total.
If Geall, scored 20 or more points, he could be next behind McAulay and that could give him a chance. That’s only if, however, somebody below him on the single year passes him in the race to catch Menard in that standings. If they don’t then he’d take Menard’s spot and we wouldn’t be discussing this.
So, if Geall did not make the playoffs of the Players’, the second two-year spot would actually go to Daley Peters.
So, we have three remaining spots and there are several teams that have a shot at it, depending on how those that are in the Player’s do in that event:
Sean Geall
Greg McAulay (who’s not in the Player’s and will be cheering for Joel Jordison)
Daley Peters (also not in the Player’s, hoping no one catches Jordison or Menard)
Chris Schille
Dale Matchett
Ted Appelman
and Brad Heidt (who has the longest chance).
The final spots will go to three of those teams.
Sorry, if I bogged you down in numbers but I hope it shows who has already qualified mathematically and who, that is remaining, has a shot at going to Prince George.