Wednesday, April 15, 2009

CTRS Women's Mumble Jumble

So after sifting through the CTRS to look at the chances to qualify for the Olympic Trials for the men a few days, let’s do the same for the women.
Currently, there are eight teams qualified for the trials or pre-trials. Jennifer Jones and Shannon Kleibrink are into the trials in Edmonton, while Kelly Scott, Sherry Anderson, Cheryl Bernard, Amber Holland and Sherry Middaugh are qualified for the Prince George pre-trials.
Since Jones won the Scotties and Kleibrink won the Canada Cup, that leaves two spots that will be decided by this year’s CTRS standings.
Also, Marie-France Larouche (183.3) can only catch Kleibrink (217.95) in this year’s CTRS if Kleibrink goes winless while Larouche wins the Players’ Championship. However, if Larouche wins the Players’, she’ll get the automatic spot for winning the Players’. Since no one else can catch Kleibrink, there’s another spot that will be determined by the CTRS.
If Larouche goes three and out at the Players’, she’ll still qualify for the pre-trial, since the closest unqualified team, Michelle Englot, is almost 90 points back (94.25), and 30 points is the most any team can get without winning the Players’ and its automatic spot.
So that makes Larouche’s team No. 9 but it still leaves at least two spots from this year to be determined by the CTRS.
In the standings, Michelle Englot is next in line for a spot from this year’s standings, but she is not unassailable. There are, in fact, six teams who could catch Englot for the second spot without winning the Players’ — Cathy King, Marla Mallett, Crystal Webster, Heather Rankin, Rachel Homan and Barb Spencer. Plus, Krista McCarville of Thunder Bay could catch King for the third spot, so they can’t be forgotten.
Next, comes the four extra spots.
For the one spot based on the three-year standings, Englot and King are also in the top two spots for that post. If they hold their spots and win a position through this year’s CTRS, then McCarville is next in line for the 3-year spot, with a 16.038 lead on Crystal Webster.
With the two-year rankings, again, Englot, King and McCarville lead the way. The next team in line Quebec’s Eve Belisle. Since Belisle is not at the Player’s, this is her only hope to qualify. She does have a 19.033 lead on the next team, Webster.
After Webster at 99.550, Rachel Homan at 95.485 and Martha Mallett at 92.413 are close, in the push for one fo thtose two spots.
Finally, the last slot goes to the highest unqualified team on this year’s list. That leaves the following rinks with a shot at one of the seven remaining spots:

At the Players’:
Michelle Englot
Cathy King
Marla Mallett
Crystal Webster
Heather Rankin
Rachel Homan
Barb Spencer
Krista McCarville

Not at the Players’:
Eve Belisle

The other question with the women is who will get the two remaining direct passes to the trials in Edmonton, to join Jones and Kleibrink.
Right now, Kleibrink has earned her spot because she is uncatchable on the three-year accumulated total. Therefore, that leaves to final spots to be decided via the two-year accumulated total. Since there is no way for the next team that does not have a direct pass to catch them, Cheryl Bernard and Stefanie Lawton’s rinks will earn those direct passes.
However, if Kleibrink wins the Players’, she will get the spot because she won three events — this year's Canada Cup, the Players' and the CTRS.
If Kleibrink takes that route, then one spot goes to the next highest on the CTRS 3-year standings. There's only two rinks that could get that spot — Stefanie Lawton or Cheryl Bernard, whoever does better at the Players'. (While Kelly Scott is within 40 points of both Lawton and Bernard, barely, if she were to get the full 40 for winning the Players Kleibrink would be getting the 3-year spot, so Scott cannot earn it — 30 points for second place would not be enough to catch either Bernard or Lawton). If they have equal success, then Bernard would win the spot less than three points. The other spot goes to the top one on the 2-year, and that will be either Bernard or Lawton who are more than 50 points ahead of the teams behind them.
If Kleibrink doesn't win this weekend, then the final two spots will go to the top two unqualified teams on the 2-year list and that's Bernard and Lawton, they cannot be caught on either the list.

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